Samvatsar 2064: Expectations, Myths & Realities. (part-1)

It is Mayhem at Dalal Street & its satellite cubicles all across the india. Like evrey year all the brokers were ready to participate in the muhurat trading, and more so in this year coz in Samvat 2063 the returns were astronomical. Market cap grew by some Rs. 10500 Crore (US$2.625 billion) for every working day during the period.

Muhurat trading is that one hour on the auspicious day of Deeepavali when Brokers, Investors & Traders participate in trading as a token to start the new business year , as it is perceived. For the last 9 years this one hour always gave them good positive returns. Coupled this with last year’s performance , expectations were pretty high.

1800hrs IST, Muhurat trading started and started on positive note. Sensex was up some 200 points , then slowly it came down , struggled to stablise itself and then gave it to market forces. (forces which were not with the traders), and before the Jedi could save it, it went down some 300 points and finally closed down at 150points negative.

First time in 10 years!!! But then, every thing took place first time at least once.

Now, what about next year. Will the bull run continue? Will investors make money? what will be the return percentage? Is it a bubble waiting to get burst? How many will survive in the market to participate in next Muhurat trading?

No one has seen the future. Moreover, I am not one of those so-called market experts who start citing Armageddon for every downward move and within a couple of days raise the year end target by 1000 points for every actual 500 points upward move.

 But what I have experienced in the market and what is proven also form decades of trading all across the world. In the longer term , equity is best investment, provided one knows what one is expecting.

However, in India, same could not be said for a large fraction considering their immaturity about market. It is not so that everyone is mature enough outside indian markets, but, in India the portion is large enough.

‘Rare‘ly I have seen investors in India barring a few names. Most of the people who have put money in the markets are the ones whose knowledge about  market is comparable to knowledge of Somalian citizens about different varities of Cavier OR knowledge of Paris Hilton about dharavi. They just trade at the (mis)guidance of (their own) brokers who ll earn brokerage for every trade whether investor earn or lose in that trade.

If I talk about market, it ll grow. Correction is an integral and inevitable part of market and Let’s hope (& pray) that it ll remain there. For reasons : # It gives insight about  the strength of an individual’s portfolio. #It corrects the value of overpriced and overhyped scripts. #It gives an opportunity to pick one’s dream scripts (not always, mind it) AND above all # it SAVES market from turning into a bubble.

And bubbles may be good or bad for traders till the time bubbles survive. But they do get burst…..